Jong AZ 0-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 38%, yet in-form NAC Breda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong AZ vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as Jong AZ welcome NAC Breda to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NAC Breda — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 0, NAC Breda 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 44% versus NAC Breda 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 40% | NAC Breda 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.27 xG and NAC Breda 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.852 / defence 0.997 | NAC Breda attack 0.837 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.436. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Jong AZ games / 25 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 38% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | NAC Breda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Jong AZ 40% | NAC Breda 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 21 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 38% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Jong AZ 1.27 / NAC Breda 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.852 / def 0.997 | NAC Breda attack 0.837 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.20
NAC Breda xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong AZ vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 21 February 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Jong AZ 0 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong AZ vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 38% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong AZ and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and NAC Breda in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.85x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.58
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.47
1.20
NAC Breda xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.20 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 4D 14L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 8W 9D 8L from 25 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.00 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 2W 3D 7L from 12 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.44 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 7W 4D 14L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 8W 9D 8L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.50 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Jong AZ or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
0
Draws
5
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, NAC Breda have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 42%, NAC Breda 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Jong AZ) and 50% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 42% of games; NAC Breda in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 42% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Jong AZ's recent games and 50% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong AZ 0-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.27 xG and NAC Breda 1.20 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.3 short of their projected output. NAC Breda outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against NAC Breda attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 38% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 34%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 40%, NAC Breda 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NAC Breda's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.00 PPG, NAC Breda 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.