Jong AZ vs FC OSS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as Jong AZ welcome FC OSS to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 1D 5L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Jong AZ) versus 1.20 (FC OSS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 3 for FC OSS and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 63% and FC OSS 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 69% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.44 xG and FC OSS 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.800 / defence 1.012 | FC OSS attack 0.682 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 Jong AZ games / 49 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 47% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 27%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | FC OSS 3.70. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 50% | FC OSS 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 47% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Jong AZ 1.44 / FC OSS 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.800 / def 1.012 | FC OSS attack 0.682 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.01
FC OSS xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC OSS part of?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 47% chance of winning, FC OSS a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Jong AZ and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Record (10 meetings): Jong AZ 4W | Draws 3 | FC OSS 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.80x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.76
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.44
1.01
FC OSS xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.01 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 16W 6D 27L from 49 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 23L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.10 PPG, FC OSS on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 6W 2D 16L from 24 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 5W 8D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.43 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC OSS in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 6D 27L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC OSS away?
FC OSS's away record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.83 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, FC OSS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, FC OSS 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Jong AZ) and 46% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 33% of games; FC OSS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Jong AZ's games and 62% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Jong AZ's recent games and 46% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.