Jong AZ 3-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Dordrecht at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 5W 0D 5L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.30 PPG versus Dordrecht's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 1, Dordrecht 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 43% versus Dordrecht 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 45% | Dordrecht 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.74 xG and Dordrecht 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.094 / defence 1.047 | Dordrecht attack 0.810 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.329. Data: 42 Jong AZ games / 42 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 52% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Dordrecht 4.00. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 40% | Dordrecht 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 52% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong AZ 1.74 / Dordrecht 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.094 / def 1.047 | Dordrecht attack 0.810 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Dordrecht xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Jong AZ 3 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 52% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong AZ and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.09x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.23
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.87
1.13
Dordrecht xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
4%
23.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.13 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 6D 21L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.02 PPG from 42 outings (11W 10D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.21 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 9W 3D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (4W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.33 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 15W 6D 21L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 11W 10D 21L in their last 42 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.43 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Dordrecht have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 43%, Dordrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Jong AZ) and 81% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Jong AZ's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Jong AZ's matches and 81% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong AZ and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Dordrecht 3-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.74 xG and Dordrecht 1.13 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Dordrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 52% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 25%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 45%, Dordrecht 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.21 PPG, Dordrecht 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.