Jong AZ 3-4 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Almere City FC at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Almere City FC — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Almere City FC — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Jong AZ hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for Almere City FC, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Jong AZ winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jong AZ and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 68% versus Almere City FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 70% | Almere City FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.51 xG and Almere City FC 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.752 / defence 1.196 | Almere City FC attack 0.945 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.568. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Jong AZ games / 22 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 33% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Almere City FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Jong AZ dominate the H2H record, yet Almere City FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 30% | Almere City FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 33% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong AZ 1.51 / Almere City FC 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.752 / def 1.196 | Almere City FC attack 0.945 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Almere City FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Almere City FC kick off?
Jong AZ vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 January 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Almere City FC?
Jong AZ 3 - 4 Almere City FC.
Where is Jong AZ vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Almere City FC part of?
Jong AZ vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 33% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong AZ and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Almere City FC?
Record (5 meetings): Jong AZ 4W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Almere City FC in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
33%
3.06
24%
4.22
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.29
1.77
Almere City FC xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
6%
17.97
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.77 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 11D 26L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.02 PPG from 56 outings (15W 12D 29L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.21 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong AZ's home form reads 6W 6D 15L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 0.85 points per game from 27 outings (6W 5D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 15W 12D 29L in their last 56 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Almere City FC away?
Jong AZ's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.89 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and Almere City FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Jong AZ won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
0
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Almere City FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Jong AZ 3-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Almere City FC?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 63%, Almere City FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Jong AZ and 56% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 26% of games; Almere City FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 44% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jong AZ's matches and 56% of Almere City FC's.
Do Jong AZ and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Jong AZ 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Jong AZ 3-4 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.51 xG and Almere City FC 1.77 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almere City FC outscored their 1.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.75 / defence 1.20 against Almere City FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 33% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 44%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Almere City FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.21 PPG, Almere City FC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.