Jong Ajax 1-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host Roda at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax at Sportpark De Toekomst this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Jong Ajax) versus 1.00 (Roda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jong Ajax have won 1, Roda 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 78% and Roda 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 67% | Roda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.68 xG and Roda 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.103 / defence 1.106 | Roda attack 0.832 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.312. Data: 58 Jong Ajax games / 57 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 48% | Draw 24% | Roda 27%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 3.70. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | Roda 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 48% | Draw 24% | Roda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Jong Ajax 1.68 / Roda 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.103 / def 1.106 | Roda attack 0.832 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Roda xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Roda kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 January 2023 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Jong Ajax 1 - 2 Roda.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Roda part of?
Jong Ajax vs Roda is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 48% chance of winning, Roda a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong Ajax and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 1 | Roda 1W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 1.10x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.15
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.89
1.21
Roda xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.21 for Roda, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 23W 17D 18L from 58 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 17L across 58 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.48 PPG, Roda on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 15W 8D 6L from 29 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 10W 9D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.79 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 23W 17D 18L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Roda have gone 24W 17D 17L in their last 58 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Roda away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.83 PPG; Roda away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
4
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Ajax 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Ajax at 83%, Roda at 55%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Jong Ajax and 55% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Jong Ajax's games and 55% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Jong Ajax's matches and 55% of Roda's.
Do Jong Ajax and Roda tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Roda in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Jong Ajax 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong Ajax 1-2 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.68 xG and Roda 1.21 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.10 / defence 1.11 against Roda attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 48% | Draw 24% | Roda 27%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 67%, Roda 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.48 PPG, Roda 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.