Jong Ajax 1-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC OSS make the trip to Sportcomplex De Toekomst to face Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Ajax (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Ajax have posted 4W 2D 4L at Sportcomplex De Toekomst — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC OSS away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Jong Ajax, 0.90 for FC OSS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC OSS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Jong Ajax 2W, FC OSS 3W, 4D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 52% versus FC OSS 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 56% | FC OSS 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.75 xG and FC OSS 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.037 / defence 1.059 | FC OSS attack 0.859 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.469. Data: 73 Jong Ajax games / 73 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 47% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | FC OSS 3.45. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 60% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 13 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 47% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong Ajax 1.75 / FC OSS 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.037 / def 1.059 | FC OSS attack 0.859 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC OSS xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong Ajax vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 April 2026 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs FC OSS?
Jong Ajax 1 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is Jong Ajax vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs FC OSS part of?
Jong Ajax vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 47% chance of winning, FC OSS a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong Ajax and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and FC OSS?
Record (9 meetings): Jong Ajax 2W | Draws 4 | FC OSS 3W.
What form are Jong Ajax and FC OSS in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (1.04) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.86x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.28
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.09
1.34
FC OSS xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
5%
19.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.34 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Jong Ajax have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 17W 17D 39L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 16W 25D 32L from 73 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.00 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Ajax have posted 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (11W 11D 14L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 18D 15L from 36 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.05 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 17W 17D 39L in their last 73 games (0.93 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 16W 25D 32L in their last 73 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or FC OSS away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.22 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 4-1 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
4
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, FC OSS have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Jong Ajax 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 47%, FC OSS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jong Ajax) and 36% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 39% of games; FC OSS in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 50% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 36% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Jong Ajax 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Jong Ajax 1-2 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.75 xG and FC OSS 1.34 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against FC OSS attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 47% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 29%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 56%, FC OSS 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.93 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.