Jong Ajax 2-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong Ajax at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and Den Bosch meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Monday 17 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportpark De Toekomst, Jong Ajax have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Jong Ajax. A 1.00 PPG lead over Den Bosch (2.40 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Jong Ajax, 0 for Den Bosch and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 81% and Den Bosch 43% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 71% | Den Bosch 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 2.42 xG and Den Bosch 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.396 / defence 1.106 | Den Bosch attack 0.888 / defence 1.519. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.523. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.519 — this is suppressing Jong Ajax's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Jong Ajax games / 21 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 58% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 22%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Den Bosch 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Jong Ajax (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | Den Bosch 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 17 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 58% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 71% | xG Jong Ajax 2.42 / Den Bosch 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.396 / def 1.106 | Den Bosch attack 0.888 / def 1.519 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Den Bosch xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 17 January 2022 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Jong Ajax 2 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 58% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Jong Ajax and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.89x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
58%
1.74
20%
4.99
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.92
1.50
Den Bosch xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
9%
11.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
2%
50.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.50 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 12W 4D 5L from 21 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 11L across 21 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong Ajax by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.19 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 12W 4D 5L in their last 21 games (1.90 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 8W 2D 11L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.00 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
5
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, Den Bosch have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong Ajax 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Jong Ajax, 50% for Den Bosch — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Jong Ajax and 60% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Jong Ajax's games and 50% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Jong Ajax's matches and 60% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong Ajax and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Ajax edge out Den Bosch 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Den Bosch 2-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 2.42 xG and Den Bosch 1.50 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.40 / defence 1.11 against Den Bosch attack 0.89 / defence 1.52, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 58% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 22%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 71%, Den Bosch 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.