Heracles 5-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Heracles welcome NAC Breda to Erve Asito. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Erve Asito, Heracles have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Heracles carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 48% versus NAC Breda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 56% | NAC Breda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.46 xG and NAC Breda 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.355 / defence 1.042 | NAC Breda attack 1.122 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.376. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Heracles games / 52 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 57% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 25%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.75 | Draw 5.26 | NAC Breda 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.07 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 70% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 57% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 73% | xG Heracles 2.46 / NAC Breda 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.355 / def 1.042 | NAC Breda attack 1.122 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Heracles (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.61
NAC Breda xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs NAC Breda kick off?
Heracles vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Heracles 5 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Heracles vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs NAC Breda part of?
Heracles vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 57% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 25% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Heracles and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and NAC Breda in?
Heracles (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Heracles's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.46. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
57%
1.77
19%
5.28
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Heracles xG
Total xG
4.07
1.61
NAC Breda xG
1.77
57%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
9%
11.75
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
2%
47.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Heracles and 1.61 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles's recent record stands at 19W 8D 23L from 50 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 18L across 50 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.30 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 12W 6D 6L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 8W 3D 13L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.50 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 19W 8D 23L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 20W 12D 18L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or NAC Breda away?
Heracles's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.75 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Heracles or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Heracles won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Heracles
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and NAC Breda?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 54%, NAC Breda 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Heracles and 71% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; NAC Breda in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Heracles's games and 58% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Heracles's matches and 71% of NAC Breda's.
Do Heracles and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 5-1 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat NAC Breda 5-1 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.46 xG and NAC Breda 1.61 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.35 / defence 1.04 against NAC Breda attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 57% | Draw 19% | NAC Breda 25%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 56%, NAC Breda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.30 PPG, NAC Breda 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.