Heracles 2-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 79%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to Erve Asito to face Heracles in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 10 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Heracles (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles at Erve Asito this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Heracles, 1.50 for Jong AZ — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Heracles 0W, Jong AZ 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Heracles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 49% versus Jong AZ 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 59% | Jong AZ 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 3.63 xG and Jong AZ 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.754 / defence 0.983 | Jong AZ attack 1.097 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.258. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.754 — their λ of 3.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 Heracles games / 65 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 79% | Draw 11% | Jong AZ 10%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.27 | Draw 9.09 | Jong AZ 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (79%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (3.63 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 87% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 50% | Jong AZ 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 79% | Draw 11% | Jong AZ 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 72% | xG Heracles 3.63 / Jong AZ 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.754 / def 0.983 | Jong AZ attack 1.097 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Heracles (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.63
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Jong AZ xG
72%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Jong AZ kick off?
Heracles vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Jong AZ?
Heracles 2 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Heracles vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Jong AZ part of?
Heracles vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 79% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 10% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Heracles and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are Heracles and Jong AZ in?
Heracles (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Heracles's attack at 1.75x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 3.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.10x) against Heracles's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-1 (6.7%), 2-1 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
79%
1.27
11%
8.87
10%
10.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
6.7%
Home win
2 – 1
6.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.63
Heracles xG
Total xG
4.99
1.36
Jong AZ xG
1.27
79%
Home win
8.87
11%
Draw
10.24
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
73%
Over 3.5
1.37
27%
Under 3.5
3.70
56%
Over 4.5
1.79
44%
Under 4.5
2.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.61
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
3%
37.90
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are Heracles and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 3.63 expected goals for Heracles and 1.36 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 27W 10D 26L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 21W 13D 29L from 63 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Heracles against 1.21 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.87 PPG from 31 outings (17W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 8W 5D 18L from 31 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.32 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 27W 10D 26L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 21W 13D 29L in their last 63 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Jong AZ away?
Heracles's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.87 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Heracles
1
Draws
0
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Jong AZ?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, Jong AZ have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2023, when Heracles 2-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Jong AZ?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 55%, Jong AZ 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Heracles) and 55% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jong AZ in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Heracles's recent matches and 45% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Heracles's matches and 55% of Jong AZ's.
Do Heracles and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Jong AZ 2-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 3.63 xG and Jong AZ 1.36 xG, a combined 4.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.75 / defence 0.98 against Jong AZ attack 1.10 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 79% | Draw 11% | Jong AZ 10%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 79%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 73% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 59%, Jong AZ 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.44 PPG, Jong AZ 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.