Heracles 3-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees De Graafschap travel to Erve Asito to take on Heracles. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Erve Asito this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Erve Asito this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Heracles carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heracles register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 44% versus De Graafschap 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 51% | De Graafschap 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.41 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.291 / defence 1.082 | De Graafschap attack 0.947 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.400. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Heracles games / 47 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 58% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 21%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | De Graafschap 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 58% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 70% | xG Heracles 2.41 / De Graafschap 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.291 / def 1.082 | De Graafschap attack 0.947 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Heracles (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.44
De Graafschap xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs De Graafschap kick off?
Heracles vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Heracles 3 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Heracles vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs De Graafschap part of?
Heracles vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 58% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Heracles and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and De Graafschap in?
Heracles (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Heracles's attack at 1.29x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
58%
1.72
21%
4.82
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.85
1.44
De Graafschap xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
9%
11.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
2%
53.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Heracles and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Heracles and 1.44 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles's recent record stands at 16W 8D 21L from 45 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 17L across 45 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.24 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 10W 6D 6L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 10W 3D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.29 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 16W 8D 21L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 14W 14D 17L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or De Graafschap away?
Heracles's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.64 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Heracles or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and De Graafschap runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Heracles
0
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and De Graafschap?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, De Graafschap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when De Graafschap 5-3 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 54%, De Graafschap 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Heracles) and 68% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; De Graafschap in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Heracles's recent matches and 54% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Heracles's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Heracles and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heracles edge out De Graafschap 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat De Graafschap 3-2 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.41 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.29 / defence 1.08 against De Graafschap attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 58% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 21%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 51%, De Graafschap 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.24 PPG, De Graafschap 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.