Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Helmond Sport welcome NAC Breda to GS Staalwerken Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at GS Staalwerken Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at GS Staalwerken Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NAC Breda — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Helmond Sport, 2 for NAC Breda and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (60 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
NAC Breda trading profile (60 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 58% and NAC Breda 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 57% | NAC Breda 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.67 xG and NAC Breda 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.043 / defence 1.156 | NAC Breda attack 1.367 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.383. NAC Breda have an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — the away xG of 2.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Helmond Sport games / 59 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 49%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 2.04. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 80% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Helmond Sport 1.67 / NAC Breda 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 1.043 / def 1.156 | NAC Breda attack 1.367 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
2.19
NAC Breda xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda kick off?
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 January 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Helmond Sport 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda part of?
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 29% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Helmond Sport and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): Helmond Sport 1W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 1.04x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
29%
3.45
22%
4.59
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.85
2.19
NAC Breda xG
3.45
29%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
11%
8.90
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
3%
30.71
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 2.19 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 15D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (28W 9D 23L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Helmond Sport's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.48 points per game from 31 outings (14W 4D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.78 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 73%.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 28W 9D 23L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.42 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Helmond Sport won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, NAC Breda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Helmond Sport at 64%, NAC Breda at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Helmond Sport and 77% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Helmond Sport's games and 74% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Helmond Sport's matches and 77% of NAC Breda's.
Do Helmond Sport and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helmond Sport defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat NAC Breda 1-0 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.67 xG and NAC Breda 2.19 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against NAC Breda attack 1.37 / defence 0.97, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 29% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 49%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Helmond Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 57%, NAC Breda 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (60 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (60 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Helmond Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.