Helmond Sport 3-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Almere City FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Helmond Sport host Almere City FC at GS Staalwerken Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Helmond Sport's home record at GS Staalwerken Stadion: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Almere City FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Helmond Sport register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almere City FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Helmond Sport, 2 for Almere City FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 0–3 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 52% versus Almere City FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Helmond Sport 62% | Almere City FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.54 xG and Almere City FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.789 / defence 1.187 | Almere City FC attack 0.963 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.388. Helmond Sport's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Helmond Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Helmond Sport games / 42 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 37% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Almere City FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 60% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 37% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Helmond Sport 1.54 / Almere City FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.789 / def 1.187 | Almere City FC attack 0.963 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Almere City FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC?
Helmond Sport 3 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC part of?
Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 37% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Helmond Sport and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Almere City FC?
Record (2 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Almere City FC in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Helmond Sport's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
37%
2.69
24%
4.22
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.13
1.59
Almere City FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.59 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 8W 7D 27L from 42 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 21L across 42 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 0.74 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 4W 4D 13L from 21 games — 0.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.52 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 8W 7D 27L in their last 42 games (0.74 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 13W 8D 21L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 0.76 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Helmond Sport go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2022, when Almere City FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 3, Almere City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Almere City FC 0-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Almere City FC?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 57%, Almere City FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Helmond Sport and 76% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Helmond Sport's games and 71% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Helmond Sport's matches and 76% of Almere City FC's.
Do Helmond Sport and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helmond Sport run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Almere City FC 3-0 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.54 xG and Almere City FC 1.59 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Helmond Sport beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almere City FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against Almere City FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.27, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 37% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 39%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Helmond Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 62%, Almere City FC 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 0.74 PPG, Almere City FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.