FC Volendam vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host Waalwijk at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 1.60 PPG versus Waalwijk's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Volendam, 2 for Waalwijk and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and Waalwijk 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 60% | Waalwijk 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.32 xG and Waalwijk 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.371 / defence 0.822 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 FC Volendam games / 49 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 68% | Draw 18% | Waalwijk 14%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Waalwijk 7.14. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 68% | Draw 18% | Waalwijk 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Volendam 2.32 / Waalwijk 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.371 / def 0.822 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Waalwijk xG
55%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Waalwijk kick off?
FC Volendam vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 March 2027 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk part of?
FC Volendam vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 68% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Volendam and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Waalwijk?
Record (5 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and Waalwijk in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.37x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.53
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.28
0.95
Waalwijk xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
10%
10.21
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
1%
73.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for FC Volendam and 0.95 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 9D 24L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 17W 17D 13L from 47 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.09 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 7W 10D 6L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.85 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 79%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 17D 13L in their last 47 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Waalwijk away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.65 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Waalwijk runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2023, when Waalwijk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Waalwijk?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Waalwijk 1-1 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 70%, Waalwijk at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Volendam and 61% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 74% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 61% of Waalwijk's.
Do FC Volendam and Waalwijk tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.