FC Volendam 5-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
MVV make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 0.67 PPG across 3 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 0W 2D 1L. Last five: D L D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.67. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. MVV are 1.33 PPG clear of FC Volendam in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.00 vs 0.67). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, MVV in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 100% and MVV 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 67% | MVV 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 0.97 xG and MVV 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.938 / defence 1.303 | MVV attack 0.786 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.621. Data: 3 FC Volendam games / 3 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 22% | Draw 24% | MVV 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | MVV 1.85. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on MVV if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 100% | MVV 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 22% | Draw 24% | MVV 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Volendam 0.97 / MVV 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.938 / def 1.303 | MVV attack 0.786 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.621 • Poisson stance: MVV (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.66
MVV xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs MVV kick off?
FC Volendam vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs MVV?
FC Volendam 5 - 0 MVV.
Where is FC Volendam vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs MVV part of?
FC Volendam vs MVV is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 22% chance of winning, MVV a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Volendam and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and MVV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and MVV in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D. MVV (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.94) and MVV's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.79x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
22%
4.56
24%
4.10
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.63
1.66
MVV xG
4.56
22%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
4%
23.97
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.66 for MVV, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours MVV by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; MVV in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
MVV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and MVV in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while MVV have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have FC Volendam or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, MVV in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 5-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
1
Draws
0
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and MVV?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, MVV have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when FC Volendam 3-1 MVV.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and MVV?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for FC Volendam, 67% for MVV — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Volendam and 67% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Volendam's games and 67% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 67% of MVV's.
Do FC Volendam and MVV tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, MVV in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 5-0 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat MVV 5-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 0.97 xG and MVV 1.66 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. MVV landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.94 / defence 1.30 against MVV attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 22% | Draw 24% | MVV 54%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 67%, MVV 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with FC Volendam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. MVV managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.