FC Volendam 4-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Helmond Sport meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 9W 1D 0L at Kras Stadion — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Helmond Sport (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in FC Volendam's favour (2.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Volendam, 0 for Helmond Sport and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 64% versus Helmond Sport 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 64% | Helmond Sport 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.99 xG and Helmond Sport 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.345 / defence 1.023 | Helmond Sport attack 0.653 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.448. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Helmond Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 FC Volendam games / 25 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 61% | Draw 21% | Helmond Sport 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Helmond Sport 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Helmond Sport 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 61% | Draw 21% | Helmond Sport 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Volendam 1.99 / Helmond Sport 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.345 / def 1.023 | Helmond Sport attack 0.653 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Helmond Sport xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport kick off?
FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
FC Volendam 4 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport part of?
FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 61% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Volendam and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | Helmond Sport 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.34x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.65x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.67
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.96
0.97
Helmond Sport xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
2%
41.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for FC Volendam and 0.97 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 17W 7D 1L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 5W 6D 14L from 25 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 1.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 2.67 PPG from 12 outings (10W 2D 0L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 3D 7L from 12 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 0.96 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 17W 7D 1L in their last 25 games (2.32 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Helmond Sport away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.67 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.75 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-1 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
1
Draws
0
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Helmond Sport have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when FC Volendam 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Helmond Sport see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 67%, Helmond Sport 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (FC Volendam) and 33% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 42% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Volendam's matches and 33% of Helmond Sport's.
Do FC Volendam and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Helmond Sport 4-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.99 xG and Helmond Sport 0.97 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.34 / defence 1.02 against Helmond Sport attack 0.65 / defence 1.29, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 61% | Draw 21% | Helmond Sport 18%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 64%, Helmond Sport 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.58 average — above their attacking norm. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.