FC Volendam 3-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Den Bosch travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 November 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 5W 2D 1L from 8 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's away record: 2W 1D 4L from 7 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Volendam are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 69% versus Den Bosch 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 75% | Den Bosch 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.00 xG and Den Bosch 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.323 / defence 1.202 | Den Bosch attack 0.788 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.548. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 FC Volendam games / 16 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 50% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Den Bosch 3.57. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 75% | Den Bosch 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 50% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Volendam 2.00 / Den Bosch 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.323 / def 1.202 | Den Bosch attack 0.788 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Den Bosch xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Den Bosch kick off?
FC Volendam vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
FC Volendam 3 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is FC Volendam vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Den Bosch part of?
FC Volendam vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 50% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Volendam and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Den Bosch?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Den Bosch in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
50%
2.00
22%
4.61
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.46
1.47
Den Bosch xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
4%
25.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.47 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 10W 5D 1L from 16 games, a 2.19 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 8W 1D 7L across 16 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 5W 2D 0L from 7 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 10W 5D 1L in their last 16 games (2.19 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 8W 1D 7L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Den Bosch away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.43 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Den Bosch runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2021, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
0
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Den Bosch?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Den Bosch have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Den Bosch 3-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Den Bosch?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 71%, Den Bosch 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC Volendam and 43% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Volendam's games and 43% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC Volendam's matches and 43% of Den Bosch's.
Do FC Volendam and Den Bosch tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Den Bosch 3-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.00 xG and Den Bosch 1.47 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.32 / defence 1.20 against Den Bosch attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 50% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 28%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 75%, Den Bosch 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Den Bosch's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.