FC Eindhoven 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven and Roda meet at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 2D 1L this season (9 games, 2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Roda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 5W 2D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.89 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Roda in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Eindhoven lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Roda — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 47% versus Roda 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 47% | Roda 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.55 xG and Roda 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.117 / defence 1.000 | Roda attack 1.078 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.566. Data: 19 FC Eindhoven games / 19 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 36% | Draw 23% | Roda 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 67% | Roda 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 36% | Draw 23% | Roda 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.55 / Roda 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.117 / def 1.000 | Roda attack 1.078 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.566 • Poisson stance: Roda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Roda xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Roda kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Roda part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 36% chance of winning, Roda a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 0 | Roda 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 1.12x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.08x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
36%
2.81
23%
4.31
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.24
1.69
Roda xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
7%
15.18
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.69 for Roda, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 9W 3D 7L from 19 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 5L across 19 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.58 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 6W 2D 1L from 9 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Roda's away record stands at 5W 2D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.95 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 9W 3D 7L in their last 19 games (1.58 PPG), while Roda have gone 8W 6D 5L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Roda away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.22 PPG; Roda away: 1.89 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Roda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
5
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Roda have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FC Eindhoven, 67% for Roda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for FC Eindhoven and 78% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Eindhoven's games and 67% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 78% of Roda's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Roda tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Roda in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven and Roda finished level at 1-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.55 xG and Roda 1.69 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Roda attack 1.08 / defence 1.17, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 36% | Draw 23% | Roda 41%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 47%, Roda 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Roda's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.58 PPG, Roda 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.