FC Eindhoven 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Dordrecht at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, FC Eindhoven have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Dordrecht 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 59% and Dordrecht 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 54% | Dordrecht 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.54 xG and Dordrecht 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.351 / defence 0.869 | Dordrecht attack 0.786 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.373. FC Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 FC Eindhoven games / 46 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 72% | Draw 17% | Dordrecht 11%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Dordrecht 9.09. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 70% | Dordrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 72% | Draw 17% | Dordrecht 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.54 / Dordrecht 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.351 / def 0.869 | Dordrecht attack 0.786 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Dordrecht xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 72% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): FC Eindhoven 2W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 1.35x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
72%
1.40
17%
5.84
11%
8.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.48
0.94
Dordrecht xG
1.40
72%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
8.87
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
8%
12.71
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
1%
112.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 0.94 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 46 games, going 25W 11D 10L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.00 PPG from 46 outings (12W 10D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 15W 4D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.70 points per game from 23 outings (4W 4D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.33 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 25W 11D 10L in their last 46 games (1.87 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 12W 10D 24L in their last 46 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Dordrecht away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.13 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.70 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2021, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
6
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Dordrecht have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Dordrecht 3-4 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Eindhoven at 65%, Dordrecht at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Eindhoven and 83% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC Eindhoven's games and 74% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 83% of Dordrecht's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.54 xG and Dordrecht 0.94 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.35 / defence 0.87 against Dordrecht attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 72% | Draw 17% | Dordrecht 11%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 54%, Dordrecht 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.