FC Eindhoven 4-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Den Bosch at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 16 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Eindhoven at 1.40 PPG versus Den Bosch's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FC Eindhoven: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Den Bosch, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The historical record gives FC Eindhoven a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 58% versus Den Bosch 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 54% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.98 xG and Den Bosch 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.114 / defence 0.957 | Den Bosch attack 0.906 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.345. Data: 57 FC Eindhoven games / 57 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 56% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Den Bosch 4.55. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | Den Bosch 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 16 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 56% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.98 / Den Bosch 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.114 / def 0.957 | Den Bosch attack 0.906 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Den Bosch xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 January 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch?
FC Eindhoven 4 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 56% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch?
Record (3 meetings): FC Eindhoven 3W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.61
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.15
1.17
Den Bosch xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
3%
32.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.17 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 29W 14D 14L from 57 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 31L across 57 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Eindhoven by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 17W 6D 5L from 28 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 5D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.21 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 29W 14D 14L in their last 57 games (1.77 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 20W 6D 31L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Den Bosch away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.04 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Den Bosch go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2023, when FC Eindhoven won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 7, Den Bosch have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 64%, Den Bosch 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (FC Eindhoven) and 54% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Den Bosch in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Eindhoven's games and 50% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 54% of Den Bosch's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Eindhoven run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Den Bosch 4-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.98 xG and Den Bosch 1.17 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Den Bosch attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 56% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 22%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 54%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.