FC Eindhoven 1-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Den Bosch at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 1W 1D 1L from 3 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.67 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Den Bosch — 0.67 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 67% versus Den Bosch 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 67% | Den Bosch 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.05 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.070 / defence 1.210 | Den Bosch attack 0.771 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.621. Data: 3 FC Eindhoven games / 3 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 26% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 48%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Den Bosch 2.08. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 67% | Den Bosch 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 26% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.05 / Den Bosch 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.070 / def 1.210 | Den Bosch attack 0.771 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.621 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Den Bosch xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 26% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
26%
3.81
26%
3.88
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.56
1.51
Den Bosch xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
6%
17.30
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.51 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 1L across 3 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Den Bosch by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Eindhoven heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Den Bosch in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have FC Eindhoven or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Den Bosch go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2023, when FC Eindhoven won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 7, Den Bosch have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 67%, Den Bosch 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Eindhoven) and 33% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Den Bosch in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 33% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 33% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and Den Bosch tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Den Bosch 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.05 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against Den Bosch attack 0.77 / defence 0.96, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 26% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 48%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 67%, Den Bosch 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Den Bosch's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with FC Eindhoven winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Eindhoven conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.