Excelsior 4-4 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Excelsior at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Almere City FC travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 November 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Almere City FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 4L across 7 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Excelsior are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Almere City FC trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 57% and Almere City FC 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 71% | Almere City FC 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.04 xG and Almere City FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.215 / defence 1.092 | Almere City FC attack 0.858 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.536. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Excelsior games / 14 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 52% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 3.70. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 50% | Almere City FC 86% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 52% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Excelsior 2.04 / Almere City FC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.215 / def 1.092 | Almere City FC attack 0.858 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.536 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Almere City FC xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Almere City FC kick off?
Excelsior vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Almere City FC?
Excelsior 4 - 4 Almere City FC.
Where is Excelsior vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Almere City FC part of?
Excelsior vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 52% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Excelsior and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and Almere City FC in?
Excelsior (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Excelsior's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
52%
1.94
21%
4.68
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.48
1.44
Almere City FC xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
4%
28.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.44 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior come into this having played 14 games, going 9W 1D 4L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.86 PPG from 14 outings (3W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Excelsior's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.71 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 86%.
Defensively: Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 9W 1D 4L in their last 14 games (2.00 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 3W 3D 8L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Almere City FC away?
Excelsior's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.67 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2022, when Almere City FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Excelsior
2
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 0, Almere City FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Almere City FC 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Excelsior at 50%, Almere City FC at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Excelsior and 67% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Excelsior's games and 83% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Excelsior's matches and 67% of Almere City FC's.
Do Excelsior and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 15, as Excelsior and Almere City FC drew 4-4 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.04 xG and Almere City FC 1.44 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almere City FC outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.22 / defence 1.09 against Almere City FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 52% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 27%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 71%, Almere City FC 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.