Emmen 2-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 22 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 9W 0D 1L at De Oude Meerdijk — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Roda have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.50 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Emmen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Roda in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Emmen, 0 for Roda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Roda — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 43% versus Roda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 43% | Roda 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.72 xG and Roda 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.244 / defence 0.807 | Roda attack 1.030 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.452. Data: 35 Emmen games / 35 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 49% | Draw 24% | Roda 27%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 3.70. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 49% | Draw 24% | Roda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Emmen 1.72 / Roda 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.244 / def 0.807 | Roda attack 1.030 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Emmen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Roda xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Roda kick off?
Emmen vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Roda?
Emmen 2 - 0 Roda.
Where is Emmen vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Roda part of?
Emmen vs Roda is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 49% chance of winning, Roda a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Emmen and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 0W.
What form are Emmen and Roda in?
Emmen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Roda (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.24) and Roda's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.03x) against Emmen's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.18
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.92
1.21
Roda xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
5%
20.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Emmen and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Emmen and 1.21 for Roda, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 35 games, going 24W 5D 6L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.80 PPG from 35 outings (17W 12D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Roda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Emmen's home form reads 13W 0D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.76 points per game from 17 outings (8W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 2.09 scored and 1.26 conceded. Roda's attacking output running into Emmen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 60%.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Roda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 24W 5D 6L in their last 35 games (2.20 PPG), while Roda have gone 17W 12D 6L in their last 35 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Roda away?
Emmen's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.29 PPG; Roda away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Emmen or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Roda in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Emmen
2
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Roda?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Roda 2-2 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 41%, Roda 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Emmen) and 65% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Emmen's recent matches and 65% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Emmen's matches and 65% of Roda's.
Do Emmen and Roda tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Roda in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Roda 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.72 xG and Roda 1.21 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.24 / defence 0.81 against Roda attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 49% | Draw 24% | Roda 27%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 43%, Roda 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Roda's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.