Emmen 1-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees De Graafschap travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Emmen's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Emmen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Emmen, 2 for De Graafschap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2025, ended 3–2 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
De Graafschap trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 55% and De Graafschap 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 63% | De Graafschap 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.65 xG and De Graafschap 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.980 / defence 1.174 | De Graafschap attack 1.263 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.448. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 Emmen games / 75 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 30% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 49%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.33 | Draw 4.76 | De Graafschap 2.04. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Emmen dominate the H2H record, yet De Graafschap are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 30% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG Emmen 1.65 / De Graafschap 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.980 / def 1.174 | De Graafschap attack 1.263 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
2.15
De Graafschap xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs De Graafschap kick off?
Emmen vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Emmen 1 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Emmen vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs De Graafschap part of?
Emmen vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 30% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 49% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Emmen and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Record (7 meetings): Emmen 4W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.98x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
30%
3.34
21%
4.83
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.80
2.15
De Graafschap xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
12%
8.56
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
4%
28.56
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Emmen and 2.15 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 28W 14D 33L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
De Graafschap's form line: 36W 18D 21L from 75 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.31 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.38 PPG from 37 outings (14W 9D 14L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 13W 12D 12L from 37 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.89 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 65%.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 28W 14D 33L in their last 75 games (1.31 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 36W 18D 21L in their last 75 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or De Graafschap away?
Emmen's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.38 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Emmen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, De Graafschap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Emmen 1-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 62%, De Graafschap 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Emmen and 62% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Emmen's games and 68% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Emmen's matches and 62% of De Graafschap's.
Do Emmen and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat De Graafschap 1-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.65 xG and De Graafschap 2.15 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against De Graafschap attack 1.26 / defence 1.03, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 30% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 49%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 63%, De Graafschap 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.31 PPG, De Graafschap 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.