Dordrecht 1-3 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Heracles travel to Matchoholic Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 May 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Matchoholic Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Matchoholic Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dordrecht are significantly better at Matchoholic Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Heracles away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Heracles — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dordrecht, 1 for Heracles and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 9.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2022, ended 1–8 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Heracles trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 56% versus Heracles 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 65% | Heracles 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.19 xG and Heracles 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.698 / defence 0.866 | Heracles attack 1.285 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.318. Dordrecht's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 73 Dordrecht games / 35 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 31% | Draw 26% | Heracles 44%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Heracles 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Dordrecht 20% | Heracles 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 31% | Draw 26% | Heracles 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Dordrecht 1.19 / Heracles 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.698 / def 0.866 | Heracles attack 1.285 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Heracles (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Heracles xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Heracles kick off?
Dordrecht vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Dordrecht 1 - 3 Heracles.
Where is Dordrecht vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Heracles part of?
Dordrecht vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 31% chance of winning, Heracles a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dordrecht and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and Heracles in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Heracles (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.70) and Heracles's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.88
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.66
1.47
Heracles xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.47 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 18W 14D 39L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Heracles's form line: 33W 11D 27L from 71 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Heracles are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dordrecht.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (12W 8D 15L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 12W 3D 20L from 35 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.82 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Heracles in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 18W 14D 39L in their last 71 games (0.96 PPG), while Heracles have gone 33W 11D 27L in their last 71 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Heracles away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.26 PPG; Heracles away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Heracles in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Heracles runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dordrecht
0
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 0, Heracles have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2023, when Dordrecht 1-3 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 46%, Heracles 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dordrecht) and 60% (Heracles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 37% of games; Heracles in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 46% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Dordrecht's matches and 60% of Heracles's.
Do Dordrecht and Heracles tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Heracles in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Dordrecht 1-3 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.19 xG and Heracles 1.47 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Heracles outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.70 / defence 0.87 against Heracles attack 1.28 / defence 0.98, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 31% | Draw 26% | Heracles 44%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 65%, Heracles 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.