Dordrecht vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Heracles travel to M-Scores Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at M-Scores Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dordrecht at 0.80 PPG versus Heracles's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dordrecht, 2 for Heracles and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Heracles trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 68% and Heracles 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 58% | Heracles 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.48 xG and Heracles 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.818 / defence 0.893 | Heracles attack 1.568 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.568 — the away xG of 2.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Dordrecht games / 4 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 23% | Draw 19% | Heracles 58%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 4.35 | Draw 5.26 | Heracles 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 2.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 40% | Heracles 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 23% | Draw 19% | Heracles 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 70% | xG Dordrecht 1.48 / Heracles 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.818 / def 0.893 | Heracles attack 1.568 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Heracles (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
2.38
Heracles xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Heracles kick off?
Dordrecht vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
Where is Dordrecht vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Heracles part of?
Dordrecht vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 23% chance of winning, Heracles a 58% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Dordrecht and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Heracles?
Record (2 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Heracles in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Heracles (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.82) and Heracles's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 2.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
23%
4.32
19%
5.18
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.85
2.38
Heracles xG
4.32
23%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
9%
10.76
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
2%
46.45
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Dordrecht and 2.38 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 12D 16L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles's form line: 9W 4D 25L from 38 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.11 PPG, Heracles on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 4W 1D 14L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.34 scored and 2.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Heracles in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 4D 25L in their last 38 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Heracles away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.21 PPG; Heracles away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Heracles runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dordrecht
0
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 0, Heracles have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2023, when Dordrecht 1-3 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 58%, Heracles 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Dordrecht and 79% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dordrecht's games and 58% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Dordrecht's matches and 79% of Heracles's.
Do Dordrecht and Heracles tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Heracles in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.