Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Helmond Sport travel to M-Scores Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 3 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht at M-Scores Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Helmond Sport have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Dordrecht have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Dordrecht hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Helmond Sport, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Dordrecht winning.
The historical record gives Dordrecht a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 53% versus Helmond Sport 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | Helmond Sport 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.90 xG and Helmond Sport 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.959 / defence 1.047 | Helmond Sport attack 0.674 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.544. Data: 62 Dordrecht games / 62 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 55% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 20%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Helmond Sport 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 80% | Helmond Sport 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 55% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Dordrecht 1.90 / Helmond Sport 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.959 / def 1.047 | Helmond Sport attack 0.674 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.544 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Helmond Sport xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht 3 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport part of?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 55% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dordrecht and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Record (9 meetings): Dordrecht 5W | Draws 2 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.96) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.91
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.99
1.09
Helmond Sport xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
3%
33.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.09 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 28W 15D 19L from 62 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 28L across 62 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helmond Sport heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 16W 9D 5L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 6W 6D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.35 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport in 65%.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 28W 15D 19L in their last 62 games (1.60 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 19W 15D 28L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Helmond Sport away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.90 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dordrecht have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 63%, Helmond Sport 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dordrecht and 63% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Dordrecht's games and 60% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dordrecht's matches and 63% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Dordrecht and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Helmond Sport 3-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.90 xG and Helmond Sport 1.09 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Helmond Sport landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Helmond Sport attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 55% | Draw 26% | Helmond Sport 20%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Helmond Sport 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.