Dordrecht 4-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 58%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dordrecht vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 38 as Dordrecht welcome FC Volendam to M-Scores Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Dordrecht's home record at M-Scores Stadion: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. FC Volendam's 2.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Dordrecht's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dordrecht, 2 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Volendam trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 56% versus FC Volendam 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 59% | FC Volendam 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.02 xG and FC Volendam 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.402 / defence 0.712 | FC Volendam attack 1.251 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.250. Dordrecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.402 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Volendam have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Dordrecht's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Dordrecht games / 37 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 58% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 20%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | FC Volendam 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 50% | FC Volendam 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 58% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Dordrecht 2.02 / FC Volendam 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.402 / def 0.712 | FC Volendam attack 1.251 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC Volendam xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC Volendam kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 May 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Dordrecht 4 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam part of?
Dordrecht vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 58% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dordrecht and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC Volendam in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 1.40x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.58
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.13
1.11
FC Volendam xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
13%
7.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
3%
37.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.11 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 35W 21D 15L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 30W 11D 30L from 71 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.77 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 2.20 PPG from 35 outings (22W 11D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Dordrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 12W 9D 14L from 35 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.69 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 35W 21D 15L in their last 71 games (1.77 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 30W 11D 30L in their last 71 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC Volendam away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.20 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2026, when FC Volendam won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
0
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, FC Volendam have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when FC Volendam 6-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 51%, FC Volendam 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Dordrecht and 69% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Dordrecht's games and 74% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dordrecht's matches and 69% of FC Volendam's.
Do Dordrecht and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat FC Volendam 4-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.02 xG and FC Volendam 1.11 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.40 / defence 0.71 against FC Volendam attack 1.25 / defence 0.85, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 58% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 20%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.77 PPG, FC Volendam 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.