Dordrecht 3-3 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dordrecht welcome FC Eindhoven to M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 20). Kick-off is Friday 20 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Dordrecht have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Eindhoven — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC Eindhoven away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Dordrecht, 1 for FC Eindhoven and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Dordrecht 0–0 FC Eindhoven — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 65% versus FC Eindhoven 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | FC Eindhoven 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dordrecht surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while FC Eindhoven have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC Eindhoven surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Dordrecht recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.19 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.354 / defence 0.985 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.279 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.372. Dordrecht carry an above-average attack rating of 1.354 — their 2.19 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC Eindhoven have an above-average attack rating of 1.279, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 57 games and FC Eindhoven's last 57.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 48% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 30%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.10 | Draw 4.38 | FC Eindhoven 3.38. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and FC Eindhoven's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Eindhoven 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 20 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 48% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG Dordrecht 2.19 / FC Eindhoven 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.354 / def 0.985 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.279 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.73
FC Eindhoven xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 20 December 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Dordrecht 3 - 3 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 20) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 48% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 1.35x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 57 games and FC Eindhoven's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.38
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.92
1.73
FC Eindhoven xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
18%
5.63
11%
8.95
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
3%
30.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.73 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 28W 20D 9L from 57 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 21L across 57 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Eindhoven heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 16W 10D 2L from their last 28 home games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 9W 9D 10L across their last 28 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.23 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Dordrecht (Home) vs FC Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 28W 20D 9L in their last 57 games (1.82 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 16W 20D 21L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.07 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Eindhoven have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Feb 2023, when Dordrecht won Dordrecht 4-0 FC Eindhoven.
Dordrecht's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dordrecht
6
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: FC Eindhoven 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 57%, FC Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dordrecht) and 57% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Dordrecht's games and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Dordrecht's matches and 57% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 86% of FC Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven finished level at 3-3 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.19 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.73 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.35 / defence 0.98 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.28 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 48% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 30%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, FC Eindhoven 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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