Dordrecht 0-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 30 as Dordrecht welcome FC Eindhoven to M-Scores Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 8W 1D 1L at M-Scores Stadion — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 1, FC Eindhoven 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 57% versus FC Eindhoven 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | FC Eindhoven 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.00 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.110 / defence 0.749 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.034 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.339. Dordrecht's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Dordrecht games / 68 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 18%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | FC Eindhoven 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 40% | FC Eindhoven 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Dordrecht 2.00 / FC Eindhoven 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.110 / def 0.749 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.034 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC Eindhoven xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Dordrecht 0 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 59% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 2 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 1.11x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.28
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.03
1.04
FC Eindhoven xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
14%
7.36
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
40.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.04 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 23W 19D 26L from 68 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 23W 23D 22L across 68 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.29 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 15W 9D 10L from 34 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 10W 12D 12L across 34 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.37 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 23W 19D 26L in their last 68 games (1.29 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 23W 23D 22L in their last 68 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.59 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2021, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dordrecht
6
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Dordrecht 3-4 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 47%, FC Eindhoven 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Dordrecht) and 53% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 59% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Dordrecht's matches and 53% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dordrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven finished level at 0-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.00 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.04 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 2.0 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 59% | Draw 23% | FC Eindhoven 18%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, FC Eindhoven 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.29 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.