Dordrecht 1-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Excelsior travel to Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 December 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 3.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 5L across 9 games at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Excelsior are 2.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dordrecht, 1 for Excelsior and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Excelsior trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 74% and Excelsior 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 79% | Excelsior 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.10 xG and Excelsior 3.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.874 / defence 1.573 | Excelsior attack 1.371 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.560. Excelsior have an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — the away xG of 3.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Dordrecht games / 19 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 8% | Draw 11% | Excelsior 80%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 12.50 | Draw 9.09 | Excelsior 1.25. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (80%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.10 / 3.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.47 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 56% | Excelsior 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 8% | Draw 11% | Excelsior 80% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 64% | xG Dordrecht 1.10 / Excelsior 3.37 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.874 / def 1.573 | Excelsior attack 1.371 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.560 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
3.37
Excelsior xG
64%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Excelsior kick off?
Dordrecht vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Excelsior?
Dordrecht 1 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is Dordrecht vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Excelsior part of?
Dordrecht vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 8% chance of winning, Excelsior a 80% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dordrecht and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Excelsior?
Record (1 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and Excelsior in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 3.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Excelsior (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.87) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 3.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-3 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 0-3 (7.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
8%
11.83
11%
8.76
80%
1.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
7.3%
Away win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
4.47
3.37
Excelsior xG
11.83
8%
Home win
8.76
11%
Draw
1.25
80%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
3%
28.96
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
0%
–
27%
3.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 4.1 |
| 1 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Dordrecht and 3.37 for Excelsior, a combined total of 4.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 2W 4D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior's form line: 13W 2D 4L from 19 games, 2.16 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 1.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dordrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 7W 0D 2L from 9 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.53 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.47 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Excelsior in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 2W 4D 13L in their last 19 games (0.53 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 13W 2D 4L in their last 19 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 0.67 PPG; Excelsior away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Excelsior in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dordrecht's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 0, Excelsior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Excelsior 1-0 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 56%, Excelsior 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Dordrecht and 67% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 44%; Dordrecht have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Dordrecht's games and 56% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Dordrecht's matches and 67% of Excelsior's.
Do Dordrecht and Excelsior tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and Excelsior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and Excelsior finished level at 1-1 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.10 xG and Excelsior 3.37 xG, a combined 4.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.87 / defence 1.57 against Excelsior attack 1.37 / defence 1.06, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 8% | Draw 11% | Excelsior 80%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 80%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 79%, Excelsior 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.