Den Bosch 2-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Den Bosch face Roda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Roda travel to De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Roda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Roda have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Roda are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 4 for Roda and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 0–6 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Roda trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 54% versus Roda 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 59% | Roda 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.49 xG and Roda 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.994 / defence 1.001 | Roda attack 1.117 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.455. Data: 66 Den Bosch games / 66 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 25% | Roda 40%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 25% | Roda 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Den Bosch 1.49 / Roda 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.994 / def 1.001 | Roda attack 1.117 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Roda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Roda xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Roda kick off?
Den Bosch vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Den Bosch 2 - 2 Roda.
Where is Den Bosch vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Roda part of?
Den Bosch vs Roda is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 34% chance of winning, Roda a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Den Bosch and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
Record (9 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 3 | Roda 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Roda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
34%
2.92
25%
3.93
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.12
1.63
Roda xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
7%
14.84
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.63 for Roda, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 25W 16D 25L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Roda's form line: 25W 19D 22L from 66 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.38 PPG, Roda on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.73 PPG from 33 outings (16W 9D 8L).
On the road, Roda have gone 12W 9D 12L from 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.45 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 61%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 25W 16D 25L in their last 66 games (1.38 PPG), while Roda have gone 25W 19D 22L in their last 66 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Roda away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.73 PPG; Roda away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
4
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 52%, Roda 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Den Bosch) and 70% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Den Bosch's games and 73% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Den Bosch's matches and 70% of Roda's.
Do Den Bosch and Roda tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Roda in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Roda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and Roda finished level at 2-2 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.49 xG and Roda 1.63 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Roda attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 34% | Draw 25% | Roda 40%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 59%, Roda 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.38 PPG, Roda 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.