Den Bosch 1-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and FC OSS meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Den Bosch haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Den Bosch at Stadion De Vliert this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC OSS haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC OSS in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Den Bosch, 2 for FC OSS and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with FC OSS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Den Bosch goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 53% versus FC OSS 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 68% | FC OSS 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.81 xG and FC OSS 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.945 / defence 1.071 | FC OSS attack 0.949 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.757 / away 1.306. Data: 38 Den Bosch games / 38 FC OSS games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 49% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 28%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | FC OSS 3.57. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | FC OSS 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 49% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Den Bosch 1.81 / FC OSS 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.945 / def 1.071 | FC OSS attack 0.949 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.757 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC OSS xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC OSS kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Den Bosch 1 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC OSS part of?
Den Bosch vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 49% chance of winning, FC OSS a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Den Bosch and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC OSS in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.95x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
49%
2.05
23%
4.36
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.14
1.33
FC OSS xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
5%
21.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.33 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 10W 5D 23L from 38 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. Den Bosch haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 21L across 38 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. FC OSS haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Den Bosch against 0.97 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 7W 3D 9L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.24 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.18 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Pre-Season
FC OSS
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 10W 5D 23L in their last 38 games (0.92 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 10W 7D 21L in their last 38 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC OSS away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.26 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 4-1 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Den Bosch
0
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 6, FC OSS have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when FC OSS 4-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC OSS?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 63%, FC OSS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Den Bosch and 63% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 26% of games; FC OSS in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Den Bosch's games and 53% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Den Bosch's matches and 63% of FC OSS's.
Do Den Bosch and FC OSS tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out FC OSS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat FC OSS 1-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.81 xG and FC OSS 1.33 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch fell 0.8 short of their projected output. FC OSS landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against FC OSS attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 49% | Draw 23% | FC OSS 28%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 68%, FC OSS 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.92 PPG, FC OSS 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.