De Graafschap 1-4 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Vitesse travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 2D 2L at De Vijverberg — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vitesse away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.30 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 1 for Vitesse and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Vitesse trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Vitesse 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | Vitesse 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.91 xG and Vitesse 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.117 / defence 0.986 | Vitesse attack 0.879 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.451. Data: 67 De Graafschap games / 67 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 24%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Vitesse 4.17. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 52% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG De Graafschap 1.91 / Vitesse 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.117 / def 0.986 | Vitesse attack 0.879 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Vitesse xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Vitesse kick off?
De Graafschap vs Vitesse kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
De Graafschap 1 - 4 Vitesse.
Where is De Graafschap vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Vitesse part of?
De Graafschap vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 52% chance of winning, Vitesse a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both De Graafschap and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Vitesse in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Vitesse (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.12x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.25
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.16
1.26
Vitesse xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
4%
27.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.26 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap come into this having played 67 games, going 32W 16D 19L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.24 PPG from 67 outings (21W 20D 26L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
De Graafschap's home form reads 20W 6D 7L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 1.06 points per game from 33 outings (8W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.45 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Vitesse in 61%.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Vitesse in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 32W 16D 19L in their last 67 games (1.67 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 21W 20D 26L in their last 67 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Vitesse away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.00 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Vitesse runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2026, when Vitesse won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
0
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, Vitesse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 61%, Vitesse 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for De Graafschap and 67% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vitesse in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of De Graafschap's games and 58% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of De Graafschap's matches and 67% of Vitesse's.
Do De Graafschap and Vitesse tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vitesse run riot with a 1-4 hammering of De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat De Graafschap 1-4 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.91 xG and Vitesse 1.26 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Vitesse outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against Vitesse attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 52% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 24%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.