De Graafschap 1-1 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong PSV U21 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for De Graafschap, 0 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 47% versus Jong PSV U21 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 58% | Jong PSV U21 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.15 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.661 / defence 1.124 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.865 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.492. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 De Graafschap games / 36 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 30% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 44%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Jong PSV U21 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | Jong PSV U21 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 30% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG De Graafschap 1.15 / Jong PSV U21 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.661 / def 1.124 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.865 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Jong PSV U21 xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap 1 - 1 Jong PSV U21.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 30% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.86x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
30%
3.35
26%
3.79
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.60
1.45
Jong PSV U21 xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.29
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.45 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 15W 9D 12L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 11W 9D 16L from 36 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.17 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (4W 7D 7L). That actually lags their 1.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 4W 4D 10L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.64 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 61%.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 15W 9D 12L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.06 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.89 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
De Graafschap have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
De Graafschap
1
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 8, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 50%, Jong PSV U21 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (De Graafschap) and 61% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 33% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of De Graafschap's games and 61% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of De Graafschap's matches and 61% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 37, as De Graafschap and Jong PSV U21 drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.15 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.45 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.66 / defence 1.12 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.86 / defence 1.38, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 30% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 44%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 58%, Jong PSV U21 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.50 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.