De Graafschap 1-3 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Ajax make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 3W 3D 2L this season (8 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vijverberg this season.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Ajax have posted 4W 1D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.62 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.62 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for De Graafschap, 2.30 for Jong Ajax — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 50% and Jong Ajax 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 69% | Jong Ajax 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.37 xG and Jong Ajax 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.830 / defence 0.913 | Jong Ajax attack 1.096 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.548. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 De Graafschap games / 16 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 34% | Draw 25% | Jong Ajax 42%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Jong Ajax 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 38% | Jong Ajax 88% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 34% | Draw 25% | Jong Ajax 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG De Graafschap 1.37 / Jong Ajax 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.830 / def 0.913 | Jong Ajax attack 1.096 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Jong Ajax xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
De Graafschap 1 - 3 Jong Ajax.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 34% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.83x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (1.10x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
34%
2.97
25%
4.07
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.91
1.55
Jong Ajax xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.55 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 3D 4L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.81 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.44 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 88%.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 games (1.88 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 9W 2D 5L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Ajax away?
Jong Ajax's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.50 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.62 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 5-1 on 22 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
De Graafschap
2
Draws
4
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 38%, Jong Ajax 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for De Graafschap and 75% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of De Graafschap's games and 88% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of De Graafschap's matches and 75% of Jong Ajax's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat De Graafschap 1-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.37 xG and Jong Ajax 1.55 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.83 / defence 0.91 against Jong Ajax attack 1.10 / defence 1.35, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 34% | Draw 25% | Jong Ajax 42%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 69%, Jong Ajax 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.88 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.