De Graafschap 2-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as De Graafschap welcome FC Eindhoven to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at De Vijverberg this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for De Graafschap, 3 for FC Eindhoven and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 66% versus FC Eindhoven 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 62% | FC Eindhoven 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.12 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.126 / defence 1.071 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.863 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.462. Data: 54 De Graafschap games / 55 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 24%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | FC Eindhoven 4.17. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 80% | FC Eindhoven 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG De Graafschap 2.12 / FC Eindhoven 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.126 / def 1.071 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.863 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.35
FC Eindhoven xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 55% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
Record (8 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
55%
1.82
21%
4.70
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.47
1.35
FC Eindhoven xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
12%
8.33
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
3%
34.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.35 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 25W 13D 17L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 19W 12D 24L from 55 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.60 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 2.07 PPG from 27 outings (17W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 12W 5D 10L from 27 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.38 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 25W 13D 17L in their last 55 games (1.60 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC Eindhoven away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.07 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.52 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 63%, FC Eindhoven 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (De Graafschap) and 56% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 33%; FC Eindhoven in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 41% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of De Graafschap's matches and 56% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC Eindhoven 2-0 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.12 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.35 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 55% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 24%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 62%, FC Eindhoven 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.