De Graafschap 3-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Den Bosch (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward De Graafschap. A 0.50 PPG lead over Den Bosch (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Den Bosch in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Den Bosch winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus Den Bosch 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 56% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.38 xG and Den Bosch 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.985 / defence 0.919 | Den Bosch attack 0.691 / defence 1.433. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.311. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.433 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 De Graafschap games / 75 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 72% | Draw 17% | Den Bosch 11%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Den Bosch 9.09. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Den Bosch lead the H2H ledger, but De Graafschap carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 30% | Den Bosch 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 72% | Draw 17% | Den Bosch 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 51% | xG De Graafschap 2.38 / Den Bosch 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.985 / def 0.919 | Den Bosch attack 0.691 / def 1.433 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Den Bosch xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kick off?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
De Graafschap 3 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch part of?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 72% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both De Graafschap and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
Record (3 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.98x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.69x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
72%
1.39
17%
5.91
11%
8.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.21
0.83
Den Bosch xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
8.86
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
9%
10.80
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
1%
95.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.83 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 28W 19D 28L from 75 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 41L across 75 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.09 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 13W 11D 13L from 37 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 7W 6D 24L across 37 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.17 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 28W 19D 28L in their last 75 games (1.37 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 24W 10D 41L in their last 75 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Den Bosch away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.35 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.73 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
3
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, Den Bosch have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when De Graafschap 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 51%, Den Bosch 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (De Graafschap) and 57% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Den Bosch in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 46% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of De Graafschap's recent games and 57% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Den Bosch tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Den Bosch 3-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.38 xG and Den Bosch 0.83 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Den Bosch attack 0.69 / defence 1.43, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 72% | Draw 17% | Den Bosch 11%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 56%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Den Bosch's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.37 PPG, Den Bosch 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.