Almere City FC 0-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Almere City FC, 2.20 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, NAC Breda in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 53% versus NAC Breda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 59% | NAC Breda 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.49 xG and NAC Breda 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.863 / defence 0.934 | NAC Breda attack 1.142 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.322. Data: 73 Almere City FC games / 73 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 39% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 36%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | NAC Breda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 70% | NAC Breda 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 39% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Almere City FC 1.49 / NAC Breda 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.863 / def 0.934 | NAC Breda attack 1.142 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
NAC Breda xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs NAC Breda kick off?
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Almere City FC 0 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda part of?
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 39% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Almere City FC and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and NAC Breda in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.86) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.14x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
39%
2.53
25%
4.04
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.41
NAC Breda xG
2.53
39%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.41 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 31W 14D 28L from 73 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 33W 14D 26L across 73 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.55 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 14W 8D 14L from 36 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 13W 5D 18L across 36 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.63 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 60%.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 31W 14D 28L in their last 73 games (1.47 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 33W 14D 26L in their last 73 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or NAC Breda away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.39 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, NAC Breda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Almere City FC 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 53%, NAC Breda 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Almere City FC and 72% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; NAC Breda in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Almere City FC's games and 64% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Almere City FC's matches and 72% of NAC Breda's.
Do Almere City FC and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Almere City FC 0-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.49 xG and NAC Breda 1.41 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against NAC Breda attack 1.14 / defence 1.00, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 39% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 36%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 59%, NAC Breda 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
NAC Breda's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.47 PPG, NAC Breda 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.