ADO Den Haag 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Willem II travel to Bingoal Stadion to take on ADO Den Haag. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 December 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ADO Den Haag stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag at Bingoal Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bingoal Stadion this season.
Willem II — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Willem II have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for ADO Den Haag, 2 for Willem II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 1–3 with Willem II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 64% and Willem II 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 64% | Willem II 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.33 xG and Willem II 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.276 / defence 1.055 | Willem II attack 1.177 / defence 0.666. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.376. ADO Den Haag carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 1.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II's defence strength of 0.666 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 ADO Den Haag games / 55 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 29% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 2.17. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 80% | Willem II 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 29% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.33 / Willem II 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.276 / def 1.055 | Willem II attack 1.177 / def 0.666 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Willem II (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Willem II xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Willem II kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 December 2023 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Willem II?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Willem II part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 29% chance of winning, Willem II a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): ADO Den Haag 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 2W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Willem II in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
ADO Den Haag's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
29%
3.45
25%
3.94
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.04
1.71
Willem II xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
5%
19.07
12%
8.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.71 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ADO Den Haag come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 18D 16L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.93 PPG from 55 outings (31W 13D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
ADO Den Haag's home form reads 9W 8D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.54 points per game from 26 outings (10W 10D 6L).
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.89 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Willem II in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Willem II in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 21W 18D 16L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while Willem II have gone 31W 13D 11L in their last 55 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.35 PPG; Willem II away: 1.54 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Willem II in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when ADO Den Haag won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Willem II 0-1 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ADO Den Haag at 69%, Willem II at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for ADO Den Haag and 54% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of ADO Den Haag's games and 62% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 54% of Willem II's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Willem II tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Willem II in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as ADO Den Haag and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.33 xG and Willem II 1.71 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.28 / defence 1.05 against Willem II attack 1.18 / defence 0.67, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 29% | Draw 25% | Willem II 46%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 64%, Willem II 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.