ADO Den Haag 1-4 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as ADO Den Haag face Jong AZ.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ meet at WerkTalent Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag at WerkTalent Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — ADO Den Haag are significantly better at WerkTalent Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong AZ have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. ADO Den Haag's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Jong AZ's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong AZ in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Historically, ADO Den Haag have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with Jong AZ managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 4–0 with ADO Den Haag winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both ADO Den Haag and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 61% and Jong AZ 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 66% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.00 xG and Jong AZ 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.050 / defence 0.795 | Jong AZ attack 1.220 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.565. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. ADO Den Haag's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 ADO Den Haag games / 62 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 48% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 29%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Jong AZ 3.45. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 70% | Jong AZ 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: WerkTalent Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 48% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG ADO Den Haag 2.00 / Jong AZ 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.050 / def 0.795 | Jong AZ attack 1.220 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.565 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Jong AZ xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at WerkTalent Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 4 Jong AZ.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at WerkTalent Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 48% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
Record (9 meetings): ADO Den Haag 6W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 1.05x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.22x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.34
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.52
1.52
Jong AZ xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
4%
25.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.52 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 37W 11D 14L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 21W 12D 29L from 62 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong AZ.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 2.13 PPG from 31 outings (21W 3D 7L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 13W 6D 12L from 31 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.74 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 66%.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 37W 11D 14L in their last 62 games (1.97 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 21W 12D 29L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Jong AZ away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.13 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won 0-4 on 3 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when ADO Den Haag 1-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 61%, Jong AZ 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for ADO Den Haag and 68% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of ADO Den Haag's games and 68% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 68% of Jong AZ's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 1-4 hammering of ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat ADO Den Haag 1-4 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.00 xG and Jong AZ 1.52 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Jong AZ attack 1.22 / defence 1.07, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 48% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 29%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 66%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Jong AZ winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.