Vicenza Virtus 3-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus and Ternana meet at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vicenza Virtus have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ternana have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Vicenza Virtus against 1.20 for Ternana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ternana in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vicenza Virtus lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–5 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 52% versus Ternana 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 48% | Ternana 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.34 xG and Ternana 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.871 / defence 1.295 | Ternana attack 1.002 / defence 1.504. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.129. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.504 — this is suppressing Vicenza Virtus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Vicenza Virtus games / 27 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 32% | Draw 30% | Ternana 38%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Ternana 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 60% | Ternana 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 32% | Draw 30% | Ternana 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.34 / Ternana 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.871 / def 1.295 | Ternana attack 1.002 / def 1.504 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Ternana (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Ternana xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana?
Vicenza Virtus 3 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 32% chance of winning, Ternana a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Ternana?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 0 | Ternana 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Ternana in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Ternana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (0.87) and Ternana's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (1.00x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
32%
3.12
30%
3.30
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.81
1.47
Ternana xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.47 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 27 games, going 4W 6D 17L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 2W 4D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.41 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Ternana in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 4W 6D 17L in their last 27 games (0.67 PPG), while Ternana have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Ternana away?
Ternana's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.77 PPG; Ternana away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, Ternana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 3-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for Vicenza Virtus, 77% for Ternana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Vicenza Virtus) and 46% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 77% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 46% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Ternana tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ternana in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vicenza Virtus cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vicenza Virtus beat Ternana 3-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 1.34 xG and Ternana 1.47 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.87 / defence 1.29 against Ternana attack 1.00 / defence 1.50, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 32% | Draw 30% | Ternana 38%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Vicenza Virtus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 48%, Ternana 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Vicenza Virtus winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.