Venezia 2-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Reggiana travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggiana stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Venezia have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Venezia have won 1, Reggiana 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Reggiana in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 52% | Reggiana 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.77 xG and Reggiana 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.361 / defence 0.940 | Reggiana attack 0.809 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.154. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 28 Venezia games / 66 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 58% | Draw 24% | Reggiana 18%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Reggiana 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 40% | Reggiana 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 58% | Draw 24% | Reggiana 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Venezia 1.77 / Reggiana 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.361 / def 0.940 | Reggiana attack 0.809 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Venezia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Reggiana xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Reggiana kick off?
Venezia vs Reggiana kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Reggiana?
Venezia 2 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Venezia vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Reggiana part of?
Venezia vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 58% chance of winning, Reggiana a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Venezia and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Reggiana?
Record (3 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 2W.
What form are Venezia and Reggiana in?
Venezia (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Reggiana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.36) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.09
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.65
0.88
Reggiana xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
3%
33.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Venezia and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Venezia and 0.88 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Reggiana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia's recent record stands at 23W 20D 23L from 66 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Reggiana, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 29L across 66 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.35 PPG, Reggiana on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 17W 5D 11L from 33 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggiana's away record stands at 8W 8D 17L across 33 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.08 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 23W 20D 23L in their last 66 games (1.35 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 18W 19D 29L in their last 66 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Reggiana away?
Venezia's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.70 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Venezia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Venezia's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Reggiana have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 42%, Reggiana 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Venezia) and 46% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Venezia have failed to score in 30% of games; Reggiana in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Venezia's recent matches and 58% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Venezia's recent games and 46% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Reggiana tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Reggiana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Reggiana 2-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.77 xG and Reggiana 0.88 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Reggiana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.36 / defence 0.94 against Reggiana attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 58% | Draw 24% | Reggiana 18%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 52%, Reggiana 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.35 PPG, Reggiana 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.