Ternana 1-0 Pordenone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Pordenone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ternana and Pordenone meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ternana have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pordenone's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ternana, 0 for Pordenone and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Pordenone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 62% versus Pordenone 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 46% | Pordenone 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.63 xG and Pordenone 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.983 / defence 1.309 | Pordenone attack 0.620 / defence 1.612. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.137. Pordenone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.612 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Ternana games / 26 Pordenone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 52% | Draw 29% | Pordenone 19%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Pordenone 5.26. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 40% | Pordenone 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Pordenone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 52% | Draw 29% | Pordenone 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Ternana 1.63 / Pordenone 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.983 / def 1.309 | Pordenone attack 0.620 / def 1.612 | league avg home 1.029 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Ternana (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Pordenone xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Pordenone kick off?
Ternana vs Pordenone kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Pordenone?
Ternana 1 - 0 Pordenone.
Where is Ternana vs Pordenone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Pordenone part of?
Ternana vs Pordenone is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Pordenone?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 52% chance of winning, Pordenone a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Pordenone?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ternana and Pordenone will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Pordenone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Pordenone?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 1W | Draws 0 | Pordenone 0W.
What form are Ternana and Pordenone in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Pordenone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ternana's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Pordenone's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Pordenone's attack (0.62x) against Ternana's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.44
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.55
0.92
Pordenone xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
4%
26.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Pordenone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ternana and Pordenone expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Ternana and 0.92 for Pordenone, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Pordenone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 7D 11L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pordenone sit at 0.46 PPG from 26 outings (2W 6D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Pordenone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 5W 1D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Pordenone have taken 0.38 points per game from 13 outings (1W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Pordenone are on 0.73 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Pordenone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Pordenone in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Pordenone have gone 2W 6D 18L in their last 26 (0.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Pordenone away?
Ternana's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.23 PPG; Pordenone away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ternana
0
Draws
0
Pordenone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Pordenone?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Pordenone have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Pordenone last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2022, when Ternana 1-0 Pordenone.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Pordenone?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Pordenone see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 46%, Pordenone 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ternana) and 46% (Pordenone).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Pordenone in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Pordenone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Pordenone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ternana's recent matches and 46% of Pordenone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Pordenone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ternana's recent games and 46% of Pordenone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Pordenone tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Pordenone in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Pordenone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Pordenone 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.63 xG and Pordenone 0.92 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pordenone landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.98 / defence 1.31 against Pordenone attack 0.62 / defence 1.61, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 52% | Draw 29% | Pordenone 19%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 46%, Pordenone 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Pordenone's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Pordenone (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.