Ternana 1-4 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Pisa at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 Serie B matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa — All Games: 2W 0D 0L from 2 Serie B fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.00. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pisa — 3.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.04 xG and Pisa 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.791 / defence 1.228 | Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.055. Ternana's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Ternana games / 2 Pisa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Ternana 1.04 / Pisa 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.791 / def 1.228 | Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Pisa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Pisa xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Pisa kick off?
Ternana vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Pisa?
Ternana 1 - 4 Pisa.
Where is Ternana vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Pisa part of?
Ternana vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 34% chance of winning, Pisa a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ternana and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Pisa in?
Ternana (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Pisa (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.79) and Pisa's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.38
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.14
1.10
Pisa xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ternana and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Ternana and 1.10 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Ternana have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ternana.
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.50 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 0%.
Defensively: Pisa in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Pisa in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Ternana or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pisa in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ternana and Pisa runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Pisa won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ternana
2
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Pisa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Pisa 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ternana's recent matches and 0% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ternana's recent games and 0% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Pisa tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pisa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pisa run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Ternana 1-4 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.04 xG and Pisa 1.10 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Pisa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 34% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 50%, Pisa 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ternana shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.