Ternana 1-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Perugia in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 18 September 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ternana have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati.
Perugia (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Perugia's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ternana, 0 for Perugia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Ternana winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 65% versus Perugia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 54% | Perugia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.40 xG and Perugia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.048 / defence 0.969 | Perugia attack 0.912 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.069. Data: 43 Ternana games / 43 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 47% | Draw 27% | Perugia 25%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Perugia 4.00. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 40% | Perugia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 47% | Draw 27% | Perugia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Ternana 1.40 / Perugia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.048 / def 0.969 | Perugia attack 0.912 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Ternana (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Perugia xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Perugia kick off?
Ternana vs Perugia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Perugia?
Ternana 1 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Ternana vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Perugia part of?
Ternana vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 47% chance of winning, Perugia a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ternana and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Perugia?
Record (2 meetings): Ternana 1W | Draws 1 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Ternana and Perugia in?
Ternana (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Perugia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ternana's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Perugia's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.91x) against Ternana's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.68
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.34
0.94
Perugia xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
6%
15.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Ternana and 0.94 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 17W 10D 16L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Perugia's form line: 14W 17D 12L from 43 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Ternana against 1.37 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (10W 3D 8L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 7W 8D 6L from 21 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.02 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Early Season
Perugia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Perugia in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 games (1.42 PPG), while Perugia have gone 14W 17D 12L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Perugia away?
Ternana's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.57 PPG; Perugia away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Ternana or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Perugia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Perugia won 3-0 on 18 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ternana
1
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Perugia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Perugia 3-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Perugia?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 43%, Perugia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ternana) and 48% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Perugia in 33%; Perugia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Ternana's recent matches and 57% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ternana's recent games and 48% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Perugia tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Perugia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Perugia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Perugia 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.40 xG and Perugia 0.94 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Perugia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Perugia attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 47% | Draw 27% | Perugia 25%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 54%, Perugia 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Perugia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.42 PPG, Perugia 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.