Ternana 3-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati.
Palermo (all games): 2W 1D 4L across 7 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Ternana's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Palermo's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 57% versus Palermo 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ternana 43% | Palermo 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.37 xG and Palermo 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.007 / defence 0.883 | Palermo attack 0.682 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.108. Data: 45 Ternana games / 7 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 54% | Draw 28% | Palermo 18%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Palermo 5.56. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 40% | Palermo 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 54% | Draw 28% | Palermo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 36% | xG Ternana 1.37 / Palermo 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.007 / def 0.883 | Palermo attack 0.682 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Ternana (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Palermo xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Palermo kick off?
Ternana vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Palermo?
Ternana 3 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Ternana vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Palermo part of?
Ternana vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 54% chance of winning, Palermo a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ternana and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Palermo in?
Ternana (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ternana's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.68x) against Ternana's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.58
18%
5.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.04
0.67
Palermo xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.50
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
5%
21.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ternana and 0.67 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ternana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Palermo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Ternana are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 0.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo in 29%.
Defensively: Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Palermo in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Palermo have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Palermo away?
Ternana's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 2.33 PPG; Palermo away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Ternana or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Palermo in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ternana won 3-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ternana
2
Draws
0
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Palermo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Palermo 2-3 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Palermo?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Ternana) and 33% (Palermo) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Ternana and 33% for Palermo.
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Palermo in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ternana's recent matches and 33% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ternana's recent games and 33% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Palermo tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Palermo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ternana run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Palermo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Palermo 3-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.37 xG and Palermo 0.67 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ternana beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against Palermo attack 0.68 / defence 1.08, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 54% | Draw 28% | Palermo 18%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 43%, Palermo 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palermo's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Palermo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.