Ternana 1-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ascoli (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ternana face Ascoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 20 as Ternana welcome Ascoli to Stadio Libero Liberati. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 January 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Ascoli — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Ascoli's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Ternana's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Ascoli have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Ternana.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Ascoli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ascoli have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 56% versus Ascoli 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 53% | Ascoli 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.94 xG and Ascoli 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.812 / defence 0.948 | Ascoli attack 1.164 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.088. Data: 57 Ternana games / 57 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 27% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 41%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Ascoli 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 20% | Ascoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 27% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Ternana 0.94 / Ascoli 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.812 / def 0.948 | Ascoli attack 1.164 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Ascoli xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Ascoli kick off?
Ternana vs Ascoli kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Ascoli?
Ternana 1 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Ternana vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Ascoli part of?
Ternana vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 27% chance of winning, Ascoli a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ternana and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Ascoli?
Record (3 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 3W.
What form are Ternana and Ascoli in?
Ternana (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.81) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
27%
3.66
32%
3.14
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.14
1.20
Ascoli xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ternana and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Ternana and 1.20 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana's recent record stands at 22W 14D 21L from 57 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 18L across 57 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.40 PPG, Ascoli on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 13W 5D 10L from 28 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 15W 5D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.32 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 22W 14D 21L in their last 57 games (1.40 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.57 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Ternana or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ascoli in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ascoli have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Ascoli won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ternana
0
Draws
5
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Ascoli have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 36%, Ascoli 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ternana) and 43% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Ternana's recent matches and 54% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ternana's recent games and 43% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Ascoli tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Ascoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Ascoli 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.94 xG and Ascoli 1.20 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Ascoli attack 1.16 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 27% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 41%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 53%, Ascoli 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ascoli's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.40 PPG, Ascoli 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.