Sudtirol 0-1 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Virtus Entella at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Marco Druso this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Virtus Entella away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Sudtirol have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 0, Virtus Entella 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Virtus Entella in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 54% versus Virtus Entella 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 39% | Virtus Entella 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.54 xG and Virtus Entella 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.945 / defence 0.783 | Virtus Entella attack 0.582 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.155. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Sudtirol games / 28 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 61% | Draw 27% | Virtus Entella 11%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.64 | Draw 3.70 | Virtus Entella 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Sudtirol (61%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Virtus Entella's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Virtus Entella 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 61% | Draw 27% | Virtus Entella 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 33% | xG Sudtirol 1.54 / Virtus Entella 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.945 / def 0.783 | Virtus Entella attack 0.582 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Virtus Entella xG
33%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella?
Sudtirol 0 - 1 Virtus Entella.
Where is Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella part of?
Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 61% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 11% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sudtirol and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 1 | Virtus Entella 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Virtus Entella in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.94) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.0%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
61%
1.63
27%
3.67
11%
8.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.07
0.53
Virtus Entella xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
8.76
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
2%
40.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 10.3 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.53 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 8W 13D 7L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Virtus Entella's form line: 6W 10D 12L from 28 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.32 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 0W 3D 10L from 13 away games — 0.23 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.93 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Virtus Entella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 8W 13D 7L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Virtus Entella away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.46 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Virtus Entella runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol's record when hosting Virtus Entella specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
1
Draws
1
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Virtus Entella?
From 3 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Sudtirol 1-0 Virtus Entella.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 54%, Virtus Entella 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sudtirol) and 38% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 38% of games; Virtus Entella in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 38% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sudtirol's recent games and 38% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Virtus Entella defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella beat Sudtirol 0-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.54 xG and Virtus Entella 0.53 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.94 / defence 0.78 against Virtus Entella attack 0.58 / defence 1.27, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 61% | Draw 27% | Virtus Entella 11%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Virtus Entella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 39%, Virtus Entella 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.32 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Virtus Entella win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.