Sudtirol 0-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sudtirol and Cittadella meet at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Marco Druso. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cittadella (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cittadella away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Sudtirol's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sudtirol, 1 for Cittadella and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Cittadella winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 48% versus Cittadella 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 34% | Cittadella 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.14 xG and Cittadella 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.889 / defence 0.812 | Cittadella attack 0.790 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.222. Data: 71 Sudtirol games / 71 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 35% | Cittadella 23%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Cittadella 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 20% | Cittadella 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 35% | Cittadella 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Sudtirol 1.14 / Cittadella 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.889 / def 0.812 | Cittadella attack 0.790 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cittadella xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Cittadella kick off?
Sudtirol vs Cittadella kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Cittadella?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Sudtirol vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Cittadella part of?
Sudtirol vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 42% chance of winning, Cittadella a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sudtirol and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cittadella?
Record (3 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 1 | Cittadella 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Cittadella in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Cittadella (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.89x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.79x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
42%
2.38
35%
2.86
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.93
0.78
Cittadella xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.78 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol come into this having played 71 games, going 27W 25D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.21 PPG from 71 outings (20W 26D 25L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.21 for Cittadella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sudtirol's home form reads 13W 14D 8L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.09 points per game from 35 outings (8W 14D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 27W 25D 19L in their last 71 games (1.49 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 20W 26D 25L in their last 71 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Cittadella away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.51 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cittadella in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won 1-5 on 9 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cittadella — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cittadella?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Cittadella have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Cittadella 1-5 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 46%, Cittadella 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Sudtirol and 31% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 29% of games; Cittadella in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 51% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Sudtirol's recent games and 31% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Cittadella tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 34, as Sudtirol and Cittadella drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.14 xG and Cittadella 0.78 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.89 / defence 0.81 against Cittadella attack 0.79 / defence 1.06, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 42% | Draw 35% | Cittadella 23%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 34%, Cittadella 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.49 PPG, Cittadella 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.