Spezia 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Spezia take on Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Modena (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Modena are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Modena — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 46% versus Modena 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 52% | Modena 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.88 xG and Modena 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.636 / defence 0.883 | Modena attack 0.874 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Spezia's attack strength of 0.636 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Spezia games / 56 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 34% | Modena 33%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Modena 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Spezia's lower xG of 0.88 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 30% | Modena 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 34% | Modena 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Spezia 0.88 / Modena 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.636 / def 0.883 | Modena attack 0.874 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Modena xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Modena kick off?
Spezia vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Modena?
Spezia 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Spezia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Modena part of?
Spezia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 32% chance of winning, Modena a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Spezia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spezia and Modena in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spezia's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.87x) against Spezia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
34%
2.92
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Spezia xG
Total xG
1.78
0.90
Modena xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 15.2 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Spezia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Spezia and 0.90 for Modena, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia come into this having played 56 games, going 8W 20D 28L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.34 PPG from 56 outings (20W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Spezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Spezia's home form reads 4W 12D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (9W 5D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Modena in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 8W 20D 28L in their last 56 games (0.79 PPG), while Modena have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.89 PPG; Modena away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Modena go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
3
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Modena 3-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 44%, Modena 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Spezia) and 56% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 48% of games; Modena in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Spezia's recent matches and 59% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Spezia's recent games and 56% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Modena tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Modena in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 19, as Spezia and Modena drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.88 xG and Modena 0.90 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.64 / defence 0.88 against Modena attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 32% | Draw 34% | Modena 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 52%, Modena 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.